I should read up more on Hubbert’s stuff, and if I’m not mistaken, there’s also two biographies of his coming out soon. I look forward to them.
Sure, Hubbert’s predictions weren’t spot on (they were close), but what can you expect? As you say, they were scenarios, and they were based on the best data available at the time. Nonetheless, his scenario of a 1970 US peak actually came true. Is that to be discounted and pretended to not have occurred because other scenarios of his were a bit off? I think not. Then again, perhaps 1970 was a lucky guess. But again, does that discount that it actually happened?
Moreover, while you mention that the “little blip” (the fracking bubble) has been deemed “the fastest oil production growth in United States history” by an EIA administrator, it’s likely also going to be followed with the fastest crash in US oil production in history. That’s how fracking works. And where will that leave us?
Does any of that discount or “discredit” Hubbert’s writings? Certainly not. What it does mean is that Hubbert didn’t have a crystal ball and so was unable to predict every little detail along the way. If you really expect that such long-term predictions can be accurately made to the decimal place, you’re surely going to be in for a round of disappointment.
“Hopefully you will consider… Ugo Bardi’s years of no experience in the industry… an industry he is unqualified to comment on, let alone analyze.”
Ugo Bardi’s? What about my experience of no years in the industry and unqualifications? Do I think that that should hamper me from looking at various points of view and forming my own opinions? Certainly not. In fact, I tend to think it’s a good idea. If not I’d be little more than an automaton, “objectively” deferring my mind out to supposed experts, in the meantime all too excited with how much they were willing to pay me or how many bread and circuses they were willing to supply me with.
Likewise, and as I said in the post, if you’re up a tree and make it a point to avoid looking down, or even go so far as to deny that you’re up a tree in the first place, well, look out.
UPDATE 18/05/2015: Not only are there two biographies on Hubbert that I know are coming out, but I just noticed that a comic strip about Hubbert’s story came out the other day. If that’s your thing, it’s worth checking out – Peak Oil: A Graphic Story.